Examine these horses manually to see if they pose a threat. Within a given tier, the horses are ranked from best to worst. However, usually the horses within a tier are close in ability and it is difficult to choose one over another. For single race bets e. Exacta, Trifecta , I would key or box the horses in this first dark green tier. For multi-leg bets e. Pick 3, Pick 4 , I take all the horses in the top tier. Sometimes, depending on the circumstances, I add one or two horses from the second tier or from the grey tier.
Although I am successful at predicting many races, it is common sense that you must be selective when choosing the races to bet. You will not be as successful if you bet every possible race.
Typically, I look for races with smaller top tiers one or two horses in the tier. I also skip races if there are one or more horses in the grey tier. While you should handpick your races to conserve your bankroll, be prepared to commit enough money to make a proper bet when you find a race you like. Exotic wagers such as Pick 4s, Pick 6s and Superfectas usually require a significant outlay to have a realistic chance of hitting the bet.
I cannot tell you how many times eliminating one or two horses from your combination to try to save a couple of bucks has cost a bettor hundreds or thousands of dollars in lost winnings. Besides my selections themselves, workouts are the second most important gauge of a horse's ability. Past performances indicate a horse's basic ability. Recent workouts are an indication of a horse's current form. When choosing between two horses with similar past ability, the horse in the best current form will often prevail.
We analyze the quality of workouts for you. Workouts highlighted in red are quality workouts. In addition, if you see the "Monster Workout" icon for a horse, keep an eye out!
Click here or view the right sidebar for the description of the icons on the prediction form. Horses are either main track horses or turf horses, not both. It is very rare that a horse will run well on both surfaces. Breeding plays a major factor here, as there are physical aspects of a horse which make the horse better on the turf or dirt. I will discuss this in further depth in a later article. It is enough to know that if a horse looks terrible on the dirt but has shown some promising short distance workouts , there's a good chance the horse will perform well on the turf.
A horse that is predisposed for turf can look like a completely different horse when moving from the main track to the turf. The same goes for horses that are terrible on the turf. They may prefer a dirt course. For first time turf starters, I incorporate a pedigree analysis and rate these horses accordingly.
Another way to gauge if a horse will like the turf is to see if the horse ever ran on a wet dirt track Good, Muddy, or Sloppy. If the horse ran significantly better on the off track than a Fast track, the horse may take well to the turf. It always amazed me that most handicappers never take track condition into consideration.
This is a HUGE factor. Similar to the dirt vs. This applies on the dirt as well as on the turf. In fact, this is often the case with European turf horses. The turf courses in Europe are frequently soft, and European horses usually don't run as well on a firm course here in the States.
A simple way to determine if a horse likes an off track, is to check his Wet record on my tip sheet or look at the horse's individual past performances on a wet track. Luckily, I do the analysis for you for all track conditions. In addition, I also analyze turf races for the dirt just in case they come off the turf due to inclement weather. Simply select the dirt and turf conditions on my predictions form to reflect the current conditions. It is important to change your selections during the racing day, if the track condition changes.
If turf racing is moved to the main track, simply choose OFF as the turf condition. You will then see my dirt selections for all turf races for the dirt track condition you have selected. Sometimes racing may come off the turf but one big turf stakes race will remain on the grass. In this case, first you select the current turf condition.
Then, go to each individual turf race and you can override the surface to Dirt for the races that came off. Simply leave the surface set to Turf for the turf races that remained on the grass. Another thing to watch for are horses that are dropping in class. Horses that are significantly dropping in class from their last race, are usually a threat. Some examples of significant class drops are: To determine if a horse is going up or down in class, simply look at the very right of the horse's section on my picks sheet.
If you see a green down arrow, that means the horse is dropping in class. A red up arrow means moving up in class. The class comparison is based on the horse's last race on the SAME surface as the current race. You can also see the class of the last race run by looking at "Prev Race: This is simply a quick indication of the track, class, and finish position of the horse in his last race e.
Of course, if you want to see the past performance in detail, view the past performance matrix. There are essentially two kinds of medication given to racehorses, Lasix and Bute. Bute is only legal at certain tracks typically on the West Coast. Any horse that is using Lasix for the first time will almost always improve. I indicate this on my tip sheet with a special icon.
On the other hand, Bute is very different. A horse either needs Bute to run well, or can't run at all with Bute. By looking at a horse's past performances, you can tell if they run better with or without Bute. The medication column on the past performance is indicated by a 'B' if the horse was using Bute. If a horse runs well with Bute and now is off Bute I use an icon to indicate this , the horse will typically run down and run a terrible race.
However, if a horse has always ran with Bute and didn't do well, the horse may run a big race the first time running without Bute. Many racing enthusiasts make the mistake of betting a particular jockey. It is true that jockeys may have significantly different winning percentages. However, these people do not realize that the most popular jockeys also get the best mounts. A jockey cannot make a horse run better than the horse's natural ability. Conversely, a jockey can ruin a horse's chance to win by giving the horse a bad ride.
And even if you like regular straight Get Daily full card picks and spot plays for the top tracks. American Turf has professional handicappers and a network of experienced trackmen an Emphasizes final fraction times and pedigree factors that have proven very successful in pointing out the m But if you're thinking that means small mutuels from big-money races, think again. Winning the Nonclaiming Race shows you how to turn these highly predictable contests in Get full card selections for racing's biggest days for the same low price as our d Redeeming a gift certificate or promotional certificate?
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