Martial Arts Betting – Markets Explained
Lifetime I am down a little bit. Sometimes I see a fight that stands out to me and I hammer it way harder than my normal plays last one was Jones over Cormier, next one is Dillashaw over Barao. I sometimes do parlays for fights that are far apart but rarely do them for fights that are in the same night. When somebody moves up a weight class I usually bet against them but this has cost me twice in a row with King Mo and Benson Henderson pulling slight upsets.
I like betting on clean accurate strikers but those are the guys who get robbed by judges because from cageside it is apparently difficult to tell how well they are doing. This is the one that has really cost me because I actually don't bet very often but I manage to be on the wrong side of a lot of terrible decisions. I had Spencer over Pendred and I have bet against Diego Sanchez in just about every one of his fights in the last years. I do not bet against guys that I consider to be absolutely great.
Part of me likes the value on RDA this weekend but I cannot bring myself to bet against a guy like Pettis. I love betting against old guys with name value who are on the back end of their careers.
When this sport is done with you, you're done and a lot of gamblers and fans don't seem to realize that. I will continue betting against Shogun, Henderson etc.
Thanks for the great answer. I also bet heavily on Jones over Cormier. It's funny looking back how people thought that Cormier would wipe the floor with Jones. The hate for that guy is real and it really skews the moneyline. Why do you parlay distanced fights? Never thought about that and I think you may have something there. I agree on the Pettis comment. Some fighters just have that x-factor and Pettis by and far is one of them.
I'd agree with the old guys comment. How do you know when a guy is substantially over his peak? I basically do the parlays of events that are far in the future because they become available so early when they are big fights and those are the ones I feel like I can predict more confidently.
Plus I expect the lines to not get any better when I'm picking a favorite so when I go on bestfightodds and scroll all the way down if I've seen three or four things I like I place a small parlay on them rather than tying up a unit on one fight that is 8 weeks away. Also meant to address that Pettis is back at flyweight tomorrow. I will probably not be betting on that fight. But I am going to watch some footage on Benoit before then so maybe. As far as knowing when a guy is past his peak I look at his age and whether or not he starts getting knocked out.
When a guy loses his chin he doesn't get it back. I watched some Benoit footage and I liked what I saw. I'm not wowed by Sergio, so I put Benoit in one of my parlays. Really depends what you are looking to get out of it. If you are looking just for a bit of fun while having a few beers and got your buddys around watching I just put a fiver on 5 or so fighters on the card who I think are gonna win.
For example I got Joseph Duffy at before the line jumped to all kinds of craziness. Pretty good rules, especially the one with the three team parlay. And number three is an interesting one. Definitely going to look into that. I don't to any props. Deciding a winner is hard enough so I definitely get where you're coming from with number 4. I'd also advise getting tempted by the huge underdogs.
Siver-McGregor is my perfect example of that, people getting tempted by Sivers odds when in reality they didn't think he would win but saw the odds on him to win. I like your perspective on this. Yep same with Cormier-Cummings people talk themselves into believing he will win because of the huge underdog odds. Hmm I think he'll run through Bader, don't you? Never have and probably never will until age catches up with him which won't be for a looooong time.
I think he's going to smash bader. Better wrestler plus DC is coming with something to prove. I didn't bet that fight but If I did I would probably look to parlay it with one other fighter or prop on that card.
I don't have limits on parlays or anything like that, my biggest rule is to never bet on fights where I'm unfamiliar with the fighters. I did it on the last ppv. I bet on Krause even though I wasn't familiar with his opponent, ended up fucking me over. It's hard to adequately assess how you think a fight will go if you don't know both parties that are fighting.
I used to do that quite a bit, or I'd bet on fighters that I've watched once only. I don't do that anymore, as I'll only bet on fights where I feel there's a a good grasp of both fighters can be found. G, even though Henry Cejudo looked great his last fight and is an overwhelming favorite right now or so , I'm not touching those odds nor touching him until after this fight, as Cariaso is a guy who has been around a while. One ridiculous one, 10 bucks for 20k, but with people I sincerely think will win.
Then a couple more. How about the strategy of compounding your winnings slowly by betting on almost guaranteed winners?
I did exactly that, just didn't feel like typing them all out I suppose. I'll upload my bets if interested. Laziness, I don't explain myself well, which is kind of ridiculous considering that should be the main point of ever commenting anywhere. I disagree with you on the bet small for a big win. I just started betting on Counter-Strike: Although the best way to bet is for value, in CS: GO, most of my winnings are on safe favorites as long as the lines aren't excessively skewed.
Safe favorites in MMA would be champions or top tier fighters that don't lose to anyone except for champions or a small handful of top tier fighters, such as MM, Ronda, Jon Jones, Edgar, Benavidez vs anyone not in the top 5, Mendes vs anyone not in the top 5. I checked a few of the sure wins out. To me, that's not a reason to gamble, though you can easily make money on small bets picking only heavy favorites, as you mentioned. Two opposing strategies, neither are wrong. After the Caceres fight, I knew Pettis is not top 15 material and can be upset.
I learned from my CS: In general, you can always find value betting against Asian fighters competing against non-Asian fighters. I believe this to be true for two reasons. First, gambling in general is more popular in Asian than Western cultures. Second, and this is conjecture based on what I've read and heard from Asian people, is that racism exists without constraint among Asian people.
The sort of unapologetic racism you only see in movies about the American South is just par for the course among Asians. What this adds up to is a disproportionate amount of money being wagered on the Asian Fighter, which means you can often find good late value betting on the non-Asian fighter. It's hardly fool-proof, but since it seemed like you were looking for a gimmick, that's mine.
Asians of both older generations of many countries and ethnicities of Asians are very racist. My parents are very racist in both innocuous as well as pretty offensive ways e. However, aren't almost all people racist to a degree? A lot of Eastern Europeans are super racist, and racism exists even in liberal and progressive areas of the USA.
Asians do love to gamble, and along with your main point, I've definitely found some value and skewed lines on Asian cards. I bet pretty substantial money on almost every MMA card possible. For this reason, I would prefer to prioritize research this week over writing breakdowns. As ever, once my research is complete I will go back and add breakdowns for each of the bets. This lazy oddsmaking has enabled us to win several big underdog bets over the last couple of months.
I still believe Taha was a solid bet at those odds, but those kinds of bets are always a gamble. I want to make it clear to you that the guy we are going to bet tonight also has holes in his game that his opponent could potentially exploit.
There are also several unanswered questions surrounding him which could see him struggle. Since PFL launched a few months ago, we have consistently seen inaccurate odds which have resulted in big underdogs winning on every event.
I have spent a lot of time researching the first 4 PFL events, and I firmly believe that the bookies are not doing their homework when setting the betting odds on PFL fights. This presents us with a golden opportunity to make money because fights are not fought on paper, they are fought in a cage. Our prefight bet on Eddie Wineland looked to be in good shape as he dropped Alejandro Perez in round 1 and did an excellent job in rounds 2 and 3 of controlling the center of the Octagon.
Rounds 2 and 3 were very close, and I personally have no problem with you scoring that fight for Perez, but I do have a massive problem with the circumstances surrounding the scoring of this fight. July is the busiest month of the year for MMA and this weekend is no exception with three major MMA events taking place. This weekend is also extra busy from a betting perspective because this is the first time in a long time where we can bet on Bellator Prelim fights as well as the main card.
Before jumping into the fights this weekend, I want to take some time to reflect on our results from last weekend. The money we make easily pays for the subscription. This service has helped me change my life for the better, both financially and the enjoyment I get from MMA.
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