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Is there a way to update those everyday instead of manually entering the numbers to each one? This would give me 4 pts even if they lost but my model said they should win. The odds for the away teams to win should be 2. More FREE Betting System Links

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Instead you will turn the tables on those greedy bookies because you will have the upper hand, you will be the one that starts making a profit from the world of losers. You will be the one that wins money everytime something loses, just like a bookie does every day of the week.

Just think for a minute or two what a difference betting on losers could make to your betting profits over the long-term. The bookies do this on a daily basis, and you rarely see a poor old bookmaker down on his luck do you? Football laying is one of the best football betting strategies ever, however you will still need an easy football betting system to follow, one that is a proven winning system over many years of dedicated testing, this has to be an important element of any winning football betting strategy moving forward.

There is nothing like the excitement of following a proven football betting system formula that wins, a formula that not only wins, but wins in style. We have all made our fair share of betting mistakes in the past. However, once you discover the secret to winning 9 times out of 10 your whole betting life will change for the better. With this in mind, it is now more important than ever before to protect ourselves against losing.

We can do this very efficiently by following a systematic football betting formula that is proven to win, not just in the short-term but one that has been applied to many years of results and thorough testing. Nevertheless, what does this really indicate? In my opinion, all bettors have an inbuilt desire to win money. In reality though we always seem to lose more than we ever win. Now think about this very carefully, if you consistently lose more than you win, you could easily use that to your advantage once you know how to bet on football and win by using lay betting to win everytime you lose.

In reality though, all any of us really want at the end of the day is to win money, accompanied by the fun and excitement connected with the whole process of being a winner each time we put our money down.

None of us want to become mugs that ought to know better when the bookies try to draw us in with their irresistible offers which inevitably invite us to lose amounts of money that we just cannot afford. Click here now for extra football betting advice This should be your actual winning expectation - because being a winner is a natural emotion in-built into people who like to have a football bet. If you add up the probability of all scorelines which have less than 3 goals in the game i.

Both Teams To Score Yes: If you add up the probability of all scorelines in which both teams find the back of the net e. In the search for value, you may also consider looking at other markets which are goal based. However, the below table gives the probability of a few of the most common markets by using the principle of the above bullet points:. The next step is to turn the probability into decimal odds.

To convert from probabilities into decimal odds, just do the reverse, i. The table below shows the associated odds for these probabilities: Remember that bookies include an edge — called an overround — when they work out there odds so that they can guarantee profit.

It is therefore important to add this margin into your odds to best reflect this overround. Simply multiply the true odds by the margin, for example, Odds x 1. The table below shows the new odds with the margin included: Now comes the fun part; deciding on where to place your bets. You have your own odds and now need to compare these against the odds from bookmakers.

This is the core of value betting which was discussed in a previous article. If you get value, then you bet — although you may wish to qualify out some bets by doing additional research to see which players are injured, motivational factors, played in Europe mid-week etc.

The below is used for illustrative purposes, but gives you an indication of the type of thing you may find when comparing the odds. In this scenario, the value is with backing the draw, backing the Aston Villa win and backing Under 2.

Now go make some profit! If everything looks OK with the model, you will then need to expand it to include the same calculations for every other game in that league. At the moment, we are only calculating the odds and bets for one match. Rather than use the same table, it makes sense to set up another 9 of these tables so that you can do one for each league game. It will be time consuming to start with, but try to get to a point where the spreadsheet can be as automated as possible — a version 2.

For instance, with my model, I input the fixtures, then the attacking and defensive metrics are calculated automatically.

This is then pulled through to another sheet where the Poission Distribution formula calculates all of the odds. I then only need to manually add the odds for all of the games directly from the bookies, then the spreadsheet tells me which bets to place. The model stays the same, the only difference is the inputs. As games progress and results are known, you will need to include these in your calculations.

If your model is working on data from last season and not including data from this season, then it is likely to be out of date. In Steps 2 and 3, we used either a list of results or the league table to work out the numbers of goals and averages.

You need to find a way of incorporating these most recent results in your calculations.






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The calculation of the probability that all 6 Picks will win is relatively easy and requires no knowledge of difficult formulas. You simply multiply together the given probabilities, thus: 51 Responses to “Combinatorics and Probability Theory in Football Betting”. Mathematics and Statistics in Sports Betting Don't be afraid of Mathematics and statistics when betting on sports. You may ignore teams' stats but you cannot afford ignoring these simple calculations. My 'Football Formula' is a proven tried and tested strategy to bet on football matches successfully and to make a profit long term. This system offers a 70% success rate and over any given period you will make a consistent profit.