Where The Odds Are In Your Favor
Key Numbers - The most important to look for are four and seven. Four makes a game a two-possession game, and seven makes it a three-possession game. Late into games, seven is usually when the opposition will lay off the gas, and your favorite can feel good. However, in comeback scenarios, if there is still enough time on the clock, seven is when the opposition can really feel it, and the pressure begins to mount on the team with the lead.
Seven is also the spread that results in a push the most, so if there is a number worth buying the extra half point in your favor, it would be seven. The National Championship showdown between the No. Action gets underway at 9: ET on Monday, April 2, The Final Four showdown between the No.
Action gets underway at 6: ET on Saturday, March 31, Action begins at 8: North Texas is a 4. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p. Action begins at 7 p. Action gets underway at 7 p. Action begins at 9 p. North Texas opened as a 3. Tip-off is set for 8: Action starts at 7 p. Penn State is a 2. Bettors always tend to bet the TV games, and smaller conferences don't always get televised.
The best times to bet the smaller schools are on Wednesdays and Saturdays because those are the bigger days in college basketball, and trust me the oddsmakers are looking at the "key games", not the smaller schools, so soft action can produce big winners. SPS isn't jaded by the power conferences, rather they really hone in to find the best lines and selective match-ups from lesser leagues where the value lies.
This is a tip they really suggest others to consider during the college hoops season. Be mindful of every single game as potential for your money. Just because certain games aren't on ESPN or getting national coverage, that doesn't mean you wouldn't be wise to invest and put your time and energy into them. Do your research, especially on the weekend. These usually are within mid-major leagues and those conferences that don't have all the eyeballs and cameras each week. So this upcoming season, be open to new teams and consider them just as potentially profitable as a Top 25 team or Final Four game.
Money is money at the end of the day, and it doesn't matter who helps you earn more of it. It is called the "active underdog over theory". The active underdog theory is essentially taking an underdog that you believe will be an active underdog either due to revenge against a team from an earlier season loss, coming off a double-digit loss, losing outright to a team they were heavily favored against, etc.
So you expect a team that is looking to exceed expectations over the line currently constructed for them. So anytime that you think a team that is an underdog is going to exceed expectations against a team then take the 'over'. This is because if the underdog is highly motivated as we discussed for revenge, coming off a double-digit loss, or losing outright to a team they were favored straight up against, then certainly they will be motivated to exceed the amount of points they are expected to score in their next game.
Most power rating handicappers will see a game that Western Michigan loses by 14 points to USC when they were a point underdog and decide because the final score matched the point spread there's no reason to move the power rating for WMU.
If you do the work and notice that WMU lost it's best player for most of the game due to foul trouble or that WMU led the entire game before losing the lead late to USC as USC ended up hitting all 12 of their last 12 free throws in the game to end up winning by 14, then you are most likely onto something good. The idea is to try and find a legitimate reason to strongly disagree with what the final score was.
If you felt WMU should have lost by only five points instead of the 14 points they did lose by then you are going to obviously move up your WMU power rating some. In the end this will give you a much better team power rating of these lesser-known teams than the linesmakers, and you will be betting with a big edge overall.
Also, good coaching and overall good team morale is very important as it's a long season. I like to read local newspapers and talk to local writers about the teams, especially the smaller conference teams. Home teams with great crowds are often very good value plays versus heavy favorites. Guard play is critical in college hoops, and handicapping the guards in each game is very important.
This can't be stressed enough when it comes to college hoops. With or so teams playing Division 1 basketball, one needs to be ahead of the oddsmakers, especially on Saturdays when almost all of these teams are in action. Of course, both you and the guys behind the counter will get info on all the big injuries and suspensions, but it's in the smaller schools in the smaller conferences where you can really make your money if you are ahead of the game.
Our advice would be to target on a few of the smaller conferences out there and really know the players, the coaches and their tendencies. Read as much as you can on a daily basis on these schools. Twitter and the Internet are your two best friends when it comes to college hoops. Find out who the beat writers are and read everything that they put out. A small tidbit about the sixth man for Radford or Elon having the flu the last few days could determine a winning or losing bet for you.
You will find great value in the smaller conferences where the books do not generally keep tight lines. The featured games usually have very tight lines because the books expect the most action on those games. So unless you have endless hours to handicap the featured games, leave them to the professional handicapper to do the work for you. More tips from the Experts: Learn a loophole in college basketball betting Learn the secrets about betting nonconference college basketball Learn about the top 3 college basketball handicapping experts Learn about our guaranteed expert college basketball picks Daily Free college basketball picks against the spread.
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