NFL Future Odds

They are currently not favored in a game until Week 9 against the Bears. But we will get another game between New England and Pittsburgh -- in Week 15, no less -- this season. The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation. Some promise, too many mistakes 16h Rich Cimini. The Bills snapped their year playoff drought with a season in 2018 FPI Unit Ratings


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Basic strength of schedule formulas based on wins and losses from the previous season really don't do the statistic justice. The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation.

But their schedule is ranked only 25th in difficulty according to the FPI because they play teams like the Bills nine wins last year and the Cardinals eight , whom we expect to be much worse than their win totals a season ago. After a winless campaign, the FPI has labeled the Browns as the most likely team to earn the No. Despite having Tyrod Taylor -- whom the model likes -- as their likely starter to begin the season, the Browns have a 14 percent chance to earn the top pick in the draft.

For Browns fans looking for some hope, there's this: That's because there's quite a bit of uncertainty about quarterbacks who have never taken a snap in the NFL, but it also means that if Mayfield plays and plays effectively, that projection can change in a hurry.

Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen. In the FPI's opinion, the Jets would be best off with Teddy Bridgewater starting under center, though it doesn't explicitly consider Bridgewater's injury.

At one point this offseason, a Tom Brady retirement seemed at least plausible. Had Brady actually hung it up, would the Patriots have been the Super Bowl favorites that they are today? Would they still win the AFC East? We ran the model in a world where Brady called it quits, and not only were the Patriots no longer the best team in football In the scenario, New England still had a 55 percent chance to win its division -- it helps to have just about the most feeble competition possible -- but only a 3 percent shot to win the Super Bowl down from 18 percent in actuality.

And that got us thinking, with FPI able to move quarterbacks around, what other alternative realities could we imagine? For example, staying in the AFC East They'd be better, that's for sure. But according to the FPI: Don't get us wrong: Even with Cousins wearing green and white, the Jets would still be the 30th-ranked team and would have only a 16 percent chance to reach the playoffs up from 10 percent.

What if we know Carson Wentz is healthy to start the season? Or in Week 5? We'll sum it up like this: The difference in the Eagles' chances to win, in the model's mind, between Wentz and Nick Foles is generally about 4 percentage points per game.

After all, we've seen that Foles is a capable fill-in. In Week 1, we give Philadelphia a 65 percent chance to beat Atlanta with Wentz under center and a 61 percent with Foles. But all those percentage points do add up: We would project over 10 wins with 16 games of Wentz, but 9.

How much better are the Colts with Andrew Luck than without him? The difference between him and Jacoby Brissett hovers around 11 percentage points per game. The Colts are about a seven-win team with Luck and just better than a five-win team with Brissett, so there's a real difference there. Arguably, no team will face a tougher start to the season than New York, which is currently an underdog in each of its first seven games.

While the over is a favorite on the Giants' win total of 7, keep in mind that they have won six games or fewer in three of the past four seasons. Expectations are low for the Redskins, who are currently tied with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst Super Bowl odds at Washington's division odds are , but we've seen this franchise overcome long odds to win the NFC East before. Washington won the division in both and , despite entering each season as the long shot to claim the NFC East in and in Green Bay has entered every season since as an odds-on favorite to win the NFC North, but is currently second behind Minnesota to claim the division in With a healthy Aaron Rodgers , the Packers still have high expectations.

Green Bay has the highest win total among teams that missed the playoffs in The first two months could make or break the season, as Detroit is currently an underdog in six of its first seven games. The Lions will also have to overcome history for bettors to cash in on their odds to win the NFC North.

The franchise will be seeking its first division title since The Bears haven't won more than six games in a season since going in , but over 6. Can new head coach Matt Nagy do what John Fox couldn't and win when favored? Fans in Chicago hope so, as the team lost outright in seven of its eight games as a favorite during the Fox era. Last season was all about exceeding expectations for the Saints, who went en route to winning the NFC South, despite entering as the division long shot at New Orleans is no long shot in The team is favored to win the NFC South, but history suggests that a division title is no guarantee.

In the three most recent seasons the Saints entered as division favorites , and , they failed to win it each time. The Falcons have won at least 10 games in each of the previous two seasons, despite entering with single-digit win totals both times. Can Atlanta do it again? Fans and those who back the Falcons this season will be hoping for a fast start. After their season opener at Philadelphia, where they are a 4.

This is the second consecutive season the Panthers have a preseason win total of nine. After hitting the over by going in , Carolina has now alternated going over and under its win total in every season since Can the Panthers break the trend in ? It might not be easy in the NFL's only division boasting three teams with a win total of at least nine. Recent history suggests Tampa Bay's odds to win the division could be a good bet. In each of the previous two seasons, the preseason long shot in the NFC South went on to win the division.

What a difference a year makes. As for this season, only the Eagles, Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers have better odds to win their respective divisions than Los Angeles. The preseason win total of 10 for the Rams is the franchise's highest since 11 , when they went under with a record.

After starting in , Jimmy Garoppolo led the 49ers to five consecutive wins to avoid a fourth straight season of the team going under its win total. Expectations have now been elevated for San Francisco, which needs to win nine games in order to hit its over in Keep in mind, this is a franchise that has been favored five times in 48 games since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan.






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Watch video · NFL odds, Vegas season win totals: SportsLine projections see value in AFC West The Eagles, Steelers, Packers, and Vikings join the Patriots in the top five of Vegas' opening lines. CG Technology released spreads for every NFL game for Weeks of the season. Win totals for every NFL team Here are the complete odds for the NFL season from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Team by team NFL season win total odds futures are posted above. Current NFL Season Win Totals -- the NFL football season win total futures line can be viewed as the Las Vegas proposition to the betting public of how many wins a given team might achieve during the regular season.